Category Archives: Election Predictions

TrendPo predicts 78% of the 418 contested House Races

Election Predictions, House Members November 27, 2012 Leave a comment

Using only daily scrapers for news, social, and sentiment, TrendPo correctly predicted 327 out of the 418 contested House races in this year’s elections. We previously made the predictions here in our Massive House Predictions post on Nov. 6th.

 

See the full results here.

 

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm on a 14 day input (same range we used for the Senate Predictions), we hit on 78% of the 418 contested House predictions on November 6th. You can see from the data table that our predictions were pretty steady no matter if we used 7, 8, 10, 14, 21, or 28 days of data from Nov. 6th.

 

This is consistent with the fact that only a small percentage of House races were contested and those races would be the variables in our ranking changes.

 

We’ll be putting up much more analysis on these predictions in the blog so stay tuned.

 

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TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

 

TrendPo predicts 24 out of 33 Senate Races — 72% accuracy rate

Election Predictions, Senators November 12, 2012 1 Comment

Using only daily scrapers for news, social, and sentiment, TrendPo correctly predicted 24 out of the 33 Senate races in this year’s elections.

 

See the full results here.

 

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm on a 14 day input (10/23 to 11/6), we hit on 72% (24 out of 33) of the Senator races on Election Day.

As a frame of reference, Nate Silver’s 538 Blog correctly predicted 31 out of 33 Senate races. Interestingly, the two that Nate Silver got wrong (Montana, North Dakota) we got right. However, we also had some big misses like Ted Cruz (TX) and Roger Wicker (MS). We’ll be diving more into the reasons why in future blog posts.

Overall, we definitely see a correlation between a candidate’s “buzz” and their election results. This is even more apparent when you add in the 100% accuracy rate of predicting Governor races. The advantage here, of course, is that TrendPo Rank can be used to measure a politician’s momentum and buzz on a daily basis…not just every two or four years.

 

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TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

TrendPo accurately predicted 100% of the Governor races from Tuesday

Election Predictions, Governors November 8, 2012 Comments: 2

Bear with us, we’re plowing through a lot of data sorting…but the early returns for TrendPo’s predictions are 100% for the Governor races.

 

See the results here.

 

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm to include the 8 days prior to Election Day, we hit 100% of the Governor predictions. This includes calling the MT (Bullock) upset, the close NH (Hassan) race and assumes that Inslee (WA) keeps his lead in the last Governor race.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

 

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

 

JD Chang, founder interview with CCTV and Biz Asia America

Daily Top Ten, Election Predictions November 6, 2012 Leave a comment

Yesterday, CCTV came by and chatted a little bit with TrendPo founder JD Chang and his vision for the TrendPo Rank.

Here’s that clip:

 

 

What do you think?

TrendPo’s massive House Predictions…

Election Predictions, House Members November 6, 2012 Leave a comment

ELECTION DAY, USA. We’ve posted all of the US House Races below according to state and district. We included anyone who was on ballot (and in some cases, we included House reps who got re-districted to another race). Look for the higher “rank” to see who has the most buzz going into today’s elections.

For example:

288 (2.73) (-18) 180 Martha Roby (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #2
872 (-1.54) (-17) 180 Therese Ford (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #2

 
This is showing that Martha Roby has had more buzz in the last week than her opponent Therese Ford. Her rank score of 288 is higher than Therese Ford at 872. The number in the (   ) is their raw score.

The arrows up or down show their change from yesterday’s rank. Hence, Martha Roby’s (-18) DOWN would indicate that yesterday she had a rank score of 270  (#288-18 = #270).

 

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TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every national politician: incumbents and challengers. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE: TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both incumbents and challengers. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter). The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

 

ALABAMA

368 (2.68) (+4) 90 Jo Bonner (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #1
288 (2.73) (-18) 180 Martha Roby (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #2
872 (-1.54) (-17) 180 Therese Ford (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #2
702 (-1.54) (-13) 180 Michael Rogers (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #3
1040 (-1.55) (-8) 180 John Andrew Harris (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #3
714 (-1.54) (-13) 180 Robert Aderholt (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #4
1531 (-1.55) (+9) 90 Daniel Boman (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #4
806 (-1.54) (-33) 180 Morris Brooks (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #5
1545 (-1.55) (-10) 180 Charlie Holley (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #5
644 (-1.53) (-16) 180 Spencer Bachus (AL) House Incumbent Republican District #6
943 (-1.54) (-28) 180 Penny Bailey (AL) House Challenger Democratic District #6
494 (1.42) (-24) 180 Terri Sewell (AL) House Incumbent Democratic District #7
1040 (-1.55) (-8) 180 Don Chamberlain (AL) House Challenger Republican District #7

 

 

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