Category Archives: Election Predictions

The 2016 Democratic Field


president-campaign_04_620x350By Becky Hogan

As presidential wannabes flock to Iowa this summer to start testing the waters and make inroads in the Hawkeye state, the big question lingers–who stands a chance against the formidable Clinton machine?

The possible list of GOP presidential candidates continues to grow, but it seems Hillary Clinton has temporarily frozen the field for Democrats in 2016 until she formally announces whether she’ll run.

We’re still over 2 years away from Election Day and no one on either side has begun to lay the groundwork for a presidential campaign, but it’s never too early to see who is generating the most online buzz among some possible contenders.

Vice President Joe Biden, San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klochubar will all be making trips to Iowa this summer amid speculation that they are mulling presidential bids.

Fun fact: In 2006, then-Senator Barack Obama also made the trek to Iowa, long before he received the Democrat nomination in 2007.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker handily won the New Jersey Senate primary last week and many believe that if he makes it to the US Senate, he will consider a presidential run in 2016.

Then there’s Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley who has been the most candid about his presidential aspirations to date.  He announced at the National Governor Association meeting earlier this month that he intends to continue to the lay the groundwork for a presidential bid by fundraising and beefing up his social media presence.

When it comes to media coverage, no one comes close to the amount of media buzz that Clinton has generated.  It seems that the media hasn’t stopped speculating about the former Secretary of State.

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Biden has about half as much national media coverage as Clinton and he’s second in command! After Biden, the media coverage drops off considerably for the remaining Democrats.  Booker has less than a fourth of the Vice President’s media coverage—even with a recent primary win.

When it comes to social media, it’s a different story.

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Booker, known for his social media prowess, has the largest following on Twitter of any of the possible contenders—he’s accrued twice as many followers as Clinton.  Biden has the most Facebook Likes of the Democrats we’ve selected.

Booker was the most “talked about” on Facebook over the past week—probably due to his recent primary victory.  Castro was the second most talked about is the past week after he announced he would attend the infamous Iowa Steak Fry, indicating the mayor is capable of generating a lot of buzz. Interestingly, Clinton was the least buzzed about in the past week indicating that Facebook users may be losing interest until she makes an official announcement.

So it seems the national media has a clear favorite in Hillary Clinton, but social media has yet to decide a clear contender.  What’s interesting is that these potential candidates seem to be buzzing in different ways—we’ll keep watching as the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination—er running mate— heats up.

TrendPo predicts 78% of the 418 contested House Races


By JD Chang

Using only daily scrapers for news, social, and sentiment, TrendPo correctly predicted 327 out of the 418 contested House races in this year’s elections. We previously made the predictions here in our Massive House Predictions post on Nov. 6th.

See the full results here.

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm on a 14 day input (same range we used for the Senate Predictions), we hit on 78% of the 418 contested House predictions on November 6th. You can see from the data table that our predictions were pretty steady no matter if we used 7, 8, 10, 14, 21, or 28 days of data from Nov. 6th.

This is consistent with the fact that only a small percentage of House races were contested and those races would be the variables in our ranking changes.

We’ll be putting up much more analysis on these predictions in the blog so stay tuned.

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TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

TrendPo predicts 24 out of 33 Senate Races — 72% accuracy rate


By JD Chang

Using only daily scrapers for news, social, and sentiment, TrendPo correctly predicted 24 out of the 33 Senate races in this year’s elections.

See the full results here.

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm on a 14 day input (10/23 to 11/6), we hit on 72% (24 out of 33) of the Senator races on Election Day.

As a frame of reference, Nate Silver’s 538 Blog correctly predicted 31 out of 33 Senate races. Interestingly, the two that Nate Silver got wrong (Montana, North Dakota) we got right. However, we also had some big misses like Ted Cruz (TX) and Roger Wicker (MS). We’ll be diving more into the reasons why in future blog posts.

Overall, we definitely see a correlation between a candidate’s “buzz” and their election results. This is even more apparent when you add in the 100% accuracy rate of predicting Governor races. The advantage here, of course, is that TrendPo Rank can be used to measure a politician’s momentum and buzz on a daily basis…not just every two or four years.

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TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

TrendPo accurately predicted 100% of the Governor races from Tuesday


Bear with us, we’re plowing through a lot of data sorting…but the early returns for TrendPo’s predictions are 100% for the Governor races.

 

See the results here.

 

Looking at the data, when we ran our algorithm to include the 8 days prior to Election Day, we hit 100% of the Governor predictions. This includes calling the MT (Bullock) upset, the close NH (Hassan) race and assumes that Inslee (WA) keeps his lead in the last Governor race.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis to create a daily rank of all national politicians. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician and select issues. We will continue to run it post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

 

Visit TrendPo to see full, daily rankings.

 

JD Chang, founder interview with CCTV and Biz Asia America


Yesterday, CCTV came by and chatted a little bit with TrendPo founder JD Chang and his vision for the TrendPo Rank.

Here’s that clip:

 

 

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